AVGEEK
Delhi’s transfer-hub ambitions and India’s network competition
Ameya Joshi examines Delhi’s connecting traffic, terminal constraints and Air India’s hub strategy, alongside new airports, IndiGo’s partnerships and the competitive choices facing Akasa and SpiceJet.
The conversation
In this episode of The Indian AvGeek, we welcome Ameya Joshi, Founder of NetworkThoughts.com to unpack Delhi Airport’s rise as a global transfer hub, explore underserved corridors, and chart India’s changing network dynamics. From terminal revamps and new mega-hubs to airline slot wars and bold contrarian forecasts, Ameya lays out the strategic moves that will define the next decade of Indian aviation.
✈️ In this discussion, we explore Delhi Airport’s remarkable transformation into a global transit hub, with international-to-international transfers surging 244%. This impressive growth positions Delhi as the best directly connected airport to North America and Europe in South and Southeast Asia.
✈️ Our conversation covers Delhi’s strategic positioning on the East-West corridor, particularly highlighting the success of the Central Asia-Southeast Asia route, where IndiGo’s connections between Bangkok, Phuket and Central Asian cities like Almaty, Tashkent, Tbilisi, and Baku alone drove a 500% increase in transit traffic. We discuss what Delhi Airport needs to become more competitive globally, including infrastructure improvements to Terminal 3 and the potential game-changing impact of an inter-terminal train system.
✈️ The episode delves into Air India’s evolving hub strategy at Delhi, including the recent announcement that 60 of its 180 daily domestic departures will relocate. We examine how this restructuring supports Air India’s European expansion and smaller station connectivity ambitions
✈️ Looking ahead, we discuss the imminent opening of two crucial airports: Noida International Airport (DXN) at Jewar, set to be inaugurated in few weeks, with commercial operations beginning within 45 days and an initial capacity of 12 million passengers annually, and how it might take three years to reach full capacity. We also touch on Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMI), inaugurating this month with the potential to reach its 20 million passenger capacity within the first year of operations
✈️ The discussion turns to India’s evolving airline landscape, where Akasa Air has ascended to become the country’s third-largest carrier. We analyze what it will take for Akasa to solidify its position beyond simply benefiting from SpiceJet’s operational challenges. Speaking of SpiceJet, we examine their puzzling strategy of inducting an Airbus A340 on wet lease, arriving by September-end 2025, potentially for London routes via Gatwick or Stansted
✈️ We explore IndiGo’s strategic partnerships, particularly their collaboration with the SkyTeam alliance carriers including Delta, Air France-KLM, and Virgin Atlantic, positioning them for deeper European and North American connectivity. The episode addresses IndiGo’s upcoming Athens route using India’s first Airbus A321XLR, with six weekly flights split between Delhi and Mumbai starting January 2026. We debate whether the Delhi-Athens market can support both IndiGo and Aegean Airlines’ planned services and discuss the implications for route development.
✈️ Finally, we explore the future of Indian aviation, including the potential for joint venture agreements between Indian and international carriers, the impact of New Distribution Capability (NDC) on revenue management, and bold predictions for India’s aviation landscape over the next 18-24 months. Ameya shares his take on India-Dubai and India-Singapore bilateral capacity, questioning whether relaxed restrictions would truly generate additional demand given current market dynamics.
✈️ Throughout our discussion, we examine how infrastructure constraints, geopolitical factors, and competitive dynamics shape India’s aviation future, while Delhi Airport positions itself among the world’s top five airports within the next decade.
Ameya Joshi - @khabri_lal
Vishal Mehra - @vishal1mehra
Key Takeaways
- Terminal transitions can destroy the practical value of an attractive timetable.
- An effective airport hub needs a competitive international-to-international experience, not just passenger capacity.
- The value of an additional route depends on connectivity contribution and economic returns, not a destination count.
- Navi Mumbai and Noida should be analysed from catchment and surface access, not just terminal capacity; the guest’s ramp-up dates remain forecasts.
- Airport processing and clear passenger communication are capacity-management tools when infrastructure is stressed.
- A new airline needs enough service frequency at a station to spread fixed station and distribution costs.
- Aircraft deliveries and bilateral rights can nullify even an otherwise persuasive network strategy.
Editorial analysis
Delhi’s hub ambition meets passenger friction
Ameya Joshi’s third appearance on the show begins at Delhi, where scale risks obscuring the experience of a traveller actually making a connection. He praises the long-term growth in airport capacity but identifies the split between terminals as a source of friction for some domestic-to-international transfers. A passenger buying a nominally convenient through itinerary does not experience a map; they experience a terminal change, queue, baggage process and a clock. International-to-international connections concentrated at Terminal 3 can be different from transfers involving another terminal.
Domestic competition and international connectivity
The opportunity is not imaginary. Joshi points to Central Asia, Southeast Asia and selected US markets as places where Delhi could assemble better connections. But his analysis resists the simple assumption that adding one more airport runway automatically produces a hub. Timed schedules, aircraft availability, competitive fares, visa conditions and the changing geography of overflight restrictions matter as much as the published route map. He also distinguishes passenger volume from yield: more African flying could increase network reach, but not every city offers the same commercial case as an underserved North American destination.
Aircraft and route economics behind the airport map
The second case is airport competition. Joshi expects Navi Mumbai and Noida International Airport to ramp up differently because of surrounding demand and access. These are forecasts expressed while the new airports were nearing opening, not verified outcomes as of 2026. He is sceptical that Delhi will surrender lucrative international traffic easily when it already has extensive capacity and established airline relationships. He also examines how airlines can absorb congestion by rethinking processing, baggage and customer communication rather than relying solely on terminal construction.
What Delhi must solve to compete for transfers
The later discussion expands to domestic competition and international strategy: SpiceJet’s persistence, Akasa’s need for enough market presence at each station, the significance of Boeing delivery delays and restrictive bilateral access, Air India Express’s competitive repositioning, IndiGo’s flexibility over formal alliance membership, and the difference between direct distribution and network planning. His strongest proposition is structural: a route is not just an aircraft between two airports. It is a network of distribution, airport costs, transfer friction and recurring schedule credibility.
Questions & answers
What holds Delhi back as a transfer airport?
Some inter-terminal journeys and passenger-processing friction, despite substantial airport capacity.
Which routes could make Delhi more connected?
Joshi considers specific US and Southeast Asian gaps, subject to aircraft, airspace and commercial feasibility.
Will Noida and Navi Mumbai develop at the same rate?
He predicts different paths based on catchment, access and existing airport competition; these are predictions, not observed outcomes.
What constrains Akasa’s expansion?
Aircraft availability, bilateral rights and the need for meaningful capacity at each city served.
Does NDC optimise an airline network?
Joshi explicitly distinguishes NDC’s distribution role from network optimisation.
Sources & attribution
Original conversation: The Indian AvGeek — Episode 51. Originally published 05 October 2025.
Historical context: This editorial analysis reports and interprets positions from the original 2025 conversation. Estimates, forecasts, commercial relationships and policy statements must not be mistaken for current conditions or independent verification as of October 2026.
Editorial Q&A: Questions and answers are explanatory editorial paraphrases, not verbatim dialogue.