AVGEEK
The competitive choices behind India–US air links
Vinay Bhaskara examines India–US route opportunities and competition with Gulf carriers, alongside how AI and New Distribution Capability might change airline reservations and distribution.
The conversation
This week on The Indian AvGeek, we turn our focus on the India-US market and its potential. Vinay Bhaskara joins us on the show to talk about that and also about artificial intelligence in the industry:
* How can artificial intelligence and aviation come together? * AI & NDC. How can that lead to smarter, better reservation systems and GDS? * How can artificial intelligence add value to airports? * State of the India-US market * Delving deep into DFW, from HYD and DEL * New routes US airlines will launch into India * Alaska’s plan for SEA-BLR * Current network of US airlines into India and how that can potentially expand? * Indian market challenges for US airlines, as well as advantages they have * How will US3 compete against MEB3 for the Indian market? * The future of India-US air travel market
Vinay Bhaskara- @theABVinay Vishal Mehra - @vishal1mehra
Key Takeaways
- Bhaskara separates established airline machine learning from emerging generative and agentic AI, expecting earlier adoption in reservations and customer service than in physical airport tasks or flight decks.
- American Airlines' NDC experience illustrates how a technically promising distribution change can falter if travel partners face abrupt commercial disruption.
- He sees structural growth in India–US travel from diaspora purchasing power and higher-value business links, while stressing that demand alone does not make a nonstop profitable.
- Bhaskara uses Dallas–Hyderabad to illustrate the trade-off among route distance, Russian airspace restrictions, suitable aircraft and the yield profile of visiting-friends-and-relatives traffic.
- His proposed US-airline routes are scenarios, not announcements; Delta, United, American and Alaska have different fleet and home-hub advantages.
- Gulf carriers remain formidable competitors because their Indian feeder reach, connection experience, network timing and cabins can offset the appeal of nonstops.
- Air India's long-haul opportunity depends as much on dependable Indian domestic connections and premium transfer experience as on adding widebody aircraft.
Editorial analysis
A market rich in demand but constrained by distance
The India–US market is often described as the obvious next frontier for nonstop aviation, but Vinay Bhaskara describes a structurally more complicated proposition. The Indian-American diaspora is expanding in purchasing power, India’s economy is generating higher-value connections with US businesses, and several long-haul city pairs show substantial connecting demand. Yet an economically strong origin-and-destination market can fail to support a nonstop flight because of great-circle distance, political airspace restrictions, the scarcity of suitable widebodies and an unfavourable balance between visiting-friends-and-relatives traffic and premium yields.
Machine learning is not the same as autonomous operations
The conversation starts in technology. Bhaskara distinguishes mature airline machine learning used in pricing and analytics from newer generative and agentic AI that could take over customer-service and reservations workflows. He sees a near-term opportunity in digital administrative tasks but a much longer path to replacing people in the physical airport or cockpit. That difference is not semantic: a system processing a voluntary itinerary change can be tested and supervised differently from security screening or aircraft operation.
Why NDC migrations can fail
He also uses American Airlines’ difficult New Distribution Capability transition to illustrate the difference between a superior technological architecture and a successful migration. The host raises the resignation of a senior commercial executive after controversy over American’s distribution changes. Bhaskara argues that middlemen and corporate travel buyers are stakeholders in the system; even a technically sensible shift can fail if implemented too abruptly or accompanied by an aggressive change in distribution economics. The host contrasts United’s more gradual approach.
The Dallas–Hyderabad route test
The central route case is Dallas–Hyderabad. Bhaskara cites substantial measured connecting demand and compares its volume with Dallas–Amsterdam, but the episode does not supply the data source, the measurement period or the precise definition of passenger demand. Those figures must be attributed to him and not adopted as independently audited route statistics. Even with a sizeable diaspora, a very long stage length and lower yield relative to premium-heavy corporate markets make a nonstop difficult; blocked Russian airspace further complicates US-airline performance.
Different carriers face different network economics
The competitive section does not treat “US carriers” as one entity. Delta’s Atlantic links, United’s global widebody operations, American’s more constrained long-haul posture and Alaska/Hawaiian’s emerging 787 capacity create different options. Gulf carriers can combine extensive Indian feeder networks with attractive one-stop itineraries. Air India’s opportunity is to offer nonstops and a strong Indian hub, but Bhaskara argues that onward domestic connections, transfer experience and consistent onboard quality must improve to convert that network into a premium proposition.
Questions & answers
Where do AI and aviation meet?
Existing pricing analytics differ from emerging agentic systems, which are more likely to enter customer service and reservations before physical airport work.
Can AI improve GDS/NDC and reservations?
Yes, though American’s distribution conflict shows adoption must account for agents and corporate partners.
Why no Dallas–Hyderabad nonstop?
Distance, overflight restrictions, aircraft and fare mix, despite cited connecting demand.
What challenges do they face against Gulf carriers?
Extensive Indian connectivity and superior journey/connection characteristics can sustain one-stop competition.
What could Air India leverage?
Its home network and direct access, provided its connecting product and premium travel proposition improve.
Sources & attribution
Original recording: The Indian AvGeek — Episode 26. Original episode published 09 February 2025.
Editorial context: This analysis examines the conversation in its original 2025 setting. Forecasts, strategy proposals, statistics and other assessments are attributed to that historical discussion, not presented as independently verified facts about October 2026.
Q&A note: These are edited, source-grounded explanations rather than verbatim quotations. Publication requires editorial review of sensitive claims and any uncertain transcript names or figures.
Data caveat: Route-demand comparisons discussed in this edition were not independently audited against the underlying dataset.